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November 29, 2024
The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly shaping our daily lives and raises questions about its impact on society. Nobel laureates like Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson urge caution and emphasize that technological progress does not always mean evenly distributed prosperity. Their research shows that major technological leaps, as currently seen in the field of AI, have the potential to exacerbate existing social inequalities and benefit a few while leaving many behind.
In their book "Power and Progress," Acemoglu and Johnson argue that while technological change is historically considered an engine for prosperity, it often only benefits a small elite. They point to the Industrial Revolution as an example, where initially only a small group of entrepreneurs and investors profited, while the vast majority of workers had to wait a long time for improvements in their living conditions. They see similar developments in the context of digitalization. While highly skilled workers saw real wage increases, the incomes of low-skilled workers stagnated.
This unequal distribution of wealth, according to Johnson, leads to social tensions and political polarization. He sees a connection between the growing inequality in the USA and the success of populist movements. The anger and frustration of those who do not benefit from technological progress can be exploited politically.
The Nobel laureates do not advocate for a rejection of AI, but rather for a responsible approach to the technology. They emphasize the possibility of using AI for the benefit of all, but at the same time warn of the risks of immature development. The concentration of power and resources in the hands of a few tech giants, the fixation on automating jobs instead of promoting human skills, and the increasing surveillance of workers are developments that concern them.
Acemoglu sees the danger of a two-tier system in which a small elite controls and uses the technology, while the majority of the population is confronted with precarious working conditions and low wages.
The development of AI holds enormous potential, for example in medicine, climate research, or materials science. AI-supported diagnostics, more efficient solar cells, and more detailed climate models are just a few examples of the positive applications of the technology.
To seize the opportunities of AI and minimize the risks, social dialogue and active shaping of technological development are necessary. Promoting education and training, strengthening workers' rights, and regulating the tech industry are important steps to ensure a fair distribution of wealth in the age of AI.
The research of scientists like Martin Butz at the University of Tübingen shows that human cognitive abilities, particularly the understanding of causal relationships, continue to play an important role. While AI systems can recognize patterns and learn complex tasks, they often lack a deep understanding of the world. The development of AI systems that can understand and explain causal relationships is an important challenge for the future.
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